When will base rate fall? Kazakh central bank chief answers

The National Bank of Kazakhstan / Photo by Serikzhan Kovlanbayev, photo editor: Dastan Shanay

Kazakhstan’s National Bank will consider lowering its base rate once inflation shows a sustained decline both month over month and year over year, and if forecasts are met, Governor Timur Suleimenov said.

He noted that in the second quarter, the economy is expected to continue adjusting to the new Tax Code, as well as changes in utility tariffs and fuel prices.

Read also: Kazakh banks face 2025 profit dip amid tax and reserve hikes.

A moratorium on changes to retail prices for AI-92 gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas expired on April 1. While pricing for AI-92 was liberalized in early 2025, autogas prices have continued to rise in line with decisions by the Energy Ministry.

Suleimenov said the regulator would be ready to ease monetary policy if it sees a consistent downward trend in inflation alongside stable expectations.

The next base rate meeting is scheduled for April 26. Suleimenov said the decision will take into account current economic conditions, including potential changes in tariffs and fuel prices.

Following its March 6 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the base rate unchanged at 18%.

The rate has remained at that level since Oct. 10, 2025.